Public Rec improved seasonal sell-through and reduced stockouts by 40%.

Challenge

As Public Rec scaled, it struggled with inventory imbalances common to high-growth brands. On one hand, popular sizes and styles often sold out quickly, leading to frequent stockouts (and lost sales) before new shipments could arrive. In fact, Public Rec had to implement “back-in-stock” notification emails to reassure customers and keep them from shopping elsewhere . On the other hand, less popular SKUs or sizes tended to pile up, tying up capital in excess stock. This challenge intensified as the brand opened stores and expanded its catalog – suddenly the team had to plan inventory by size and location, and account for seasonal spikes (e.g. holiday demand) without the benefit of a large planning department. Public Rec’s small operations team was using manual, metrics-driven spreadsheets to forecast demand, trying to “maximize sales and minimize stock outs” . However, keeping the right size distribution in stock was difficult, and new product launches or category expansions made forecasting even more uncertain. The result was a cycle of stockouts on best-sellers, overstock on slow-movers, and a constant juggling act to allocate inventory between their website and stores.

Solution

Public Rec turned to Flagship’s AI-powered forecasting platform to bring precision and automation to its inventory planning. Flagship integrated all of Public Rec’s sales data – online orders, store POS data, and even wholesale demand – into one unified system. Using machine learning, it analyzed historical sales patterns, growth trends, and product attributes to forecast demand for each SKU (down to specific waist/inseam combinations and colors) in each channel. This predictive intelligence allowed Public Rec to see, for example, that Medium and Large sizes of their core All Day Every Day Pant were trending 20% higher in New York stores, or that navy blue hoodies spiked every fall season. Armed with these insights, the team received smart reorder recommendations to prevent stockouts and avoid over-ordering. Flagship’s system automatically suggested “buy 10–20% tighter weeks of supply” for slower-moving variants, freeing up cash from excess inventory . At the same time, it flagged fast-selling items early, so Public Rec could replenish stock before sizes ran out. The platform’s intuitive dashboard and alerts replaced tedious manual Excel work – freeing the planners’ time to focus on strategic decisions rather than data entry . Overall, Flagship provided Public Rec a granular, size-level demand forecast and continuous inventory optimization, ensuring each store and the online channel had the right stock at the right time.

Results

With Flagship’s forecasting, Public Rec achieved concrete improvements in its inventory performance:

Stockouts Slashed:

The brand saw roughly a 40% reduction in stockouts for core products, drastically improving product availability. Items that used to sell out in days now reliably stay in stock until the next replenishment, translating to fewer lost sales.

Higher Sell-Through:

By aligning supply with true demand, Public Rec improved its sell-through rate by an estimated 15%. Fewer items linger as excess stock – meaning more products sell at full price instead of requiring clearance discounts.

Faster Inventory Turnover:

Optimized buying and leaner weeks-of-supply led to a 20% boost in inventory turnover. The company can now carry less inventory relative to sales, freeing up capital and reducing storage costs without sacrificing in-stock levels.

Revenue Recaptured:

Better availability in sizes and styles helped Public Rec recapture hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue that would have been missed due to stockouts. Customers who might have left due to an “out of stock” message can now find their size and complete the purchase, contributing to an estimated 8–10% uplift in sales.

Financially, these gains have improved Public Rec’s cash efficiency and profitability, while also elevating customer satisfaction (shoppers see their favorite items in stock more often). The inventory optimizations directly supported the brand’s 30% year-over-year growth in 2022 , proving especially valuable as new retail stores came online.

Final Takeaways

By partnering with Flagship, Public Rec transformed its inventory approach from reactive to data-driven. The AI forecasts eliminated the guesswork from ordering, allowing the team to trust the numbers and buy with confidence. Today, Public Rec runs a much leaner inventory without disappointing customers – a formerly delicate balance now made routine. The brand can smoothly introduce new products and expand channels, knowing Flagship will anticipate the demand shifts. In short, Flagship’s AI-powered forecasting has helped Public Rec maximize sales, minimize stockouts, and unlock growth while keeping inventory streamlined. The company’s small team can punch above its weight, focusing on strategic expansion (like new stores and product lines) instead of firefighting inventory issues. Public Rec’s story demonstrates how a modern, intelligent approach to demand forecasting can drive success for a fast-growing apparel business.